geopolitical risk consulting

Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. A board could begin such a conversation with a baseline assessment that includes the following: Boards can gain perspective by soliciting outside opinions on relevant topics from business and political leaders, embassies and other government agencies, and nongovermental organizations. On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on a rolling basis. Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union, American Express. Managing risk in today's environment is complex. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. Putting politics first since 1998. Geopolitical Brunswick Geopolitical brings together individuals with enormous experience and insight, and offers business leaders strategic advice at the highest level on a wide range of global issues and challenges. Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. Turn qualitative country risk information into quantitative risk analysis and scores, Country Risk Investment Model One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. Australia. As a management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group . New York NY 10055. Political risk consulting firms. Cyber risks are believed to have the deepest impact on supply chains rated by 34% as a high impact and 54% as medium. Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. For decades, companies built their . In a global business environment characterized both by hypercompetition and intensifying geopolitical headwinds, it is no longer enough for companies with global footprints to only react defensively. Instead, boards can dedicate regular standing time to analyzing how to respond to the geopolitical risks that their enterprises face as part of a broader board effort to build more resilient companies. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself, if that narrative could create conflicts with stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Please feel free contact with us if you have any further questions or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios Our intelligence analysts are building on 20 years experience in understanding political risks faced by our clients in insurance and financial services. We provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. The other stream is to work for such client companies directly, in an "in-house" role - i.e. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. 3 The firm's new geopolitical advisory team is being launched as multinational corporations grapple with volatile events around the world, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to simmering tensions. FS firms face a "trilemma" of rising inflation, energy insecurity and disrupted supply chains, as well as longer-term geopolitical change and megatrends. (See Exhibit 1.) One stream is to work for consultancies - i.e. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. by The threat to US dominance and the potential development of what some describe as a bipolar global order, pitting the West against China and Russia, is a risk worrying American policymakers as well. Case Study 3 Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. World Path Consulting San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote. Cultural Missteps Andrew S. Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company, New York, NY: Currency, 1996. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. There are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model. Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites . Citi. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. . and risk management resources for todays professional services Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . Read more. & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. Sign in with your username. The challenges that geopolitical risks create will get worse. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. They should regularly look up from tending to the immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt, and prepare for external and internal shocks and pressures. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Geopolitics is "the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations.". Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Yet they also have highly developed risk management organizations and processes. Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. Political risk monitoring. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. They will be part of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic intelligence monitoring on . Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. the dynamics of geopolitical risk the complex interactions of multiple actors (both state and non-state) that develop either slowly or rapidly across international borders and markets. Boston Consulting Group 2023. The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. Krolls assessment analyzed the safety of the clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic outlooks. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. Global geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past decade, according to leading indices. | Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. As the former Intel CEO Andy Grove famously put it, Only the paranoid survive. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and Case Study 2 An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . Not surprisingly, several oil and gas companieswhich often make large, long-term investments in high-risk countries amid frequently shifting environmental-protection policiesfall in this category. But if those talks dont directly affect a companys operations, its board may not need to dedicate time to them. ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. Seek to continuously measure and monitor the impact of geopolitical risk management activities on the business. Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly and creates multi-dimensional challenges for global organisations. The Ukraine war is likely to drive geopolitical fragmentation and the emergence of blocs, in our view, BlackRock said in its report. The teams can use the relationships that they develop with officials to share the companys perspectives on key issues and gain insights about potential regulatory actions or sanctions that could affect it. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself in a specific way, if that narrative could create conflicts with external or internal stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Something went wrong. A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. Stress in global financial markets is significant. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. . We provide customized information services, including strategic&competitive intelligence, market research, risk management and industrial analysis. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. Every organization we studied relies on input and expertise from the field. Otherwise, internal fissures can build and burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance. How to factor geopolitical risk into technology strategy | EY - US Trending US pandemic response and relief funding - proactively mitigating fraud, waste and abuse 2 Feb 2023 The COO Imperative: How human emotions can unlock supply chain success 23 Jan 2023 Consulting 2023 Global economic outlook: Transforming uncertainty into opportunity "autoplaySpeed":8000 Experienced in political affairs, non-profits, articles and blogs, with demonstrated skills in research and analysis on politics, policy, and history. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. In the next two decades, competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War. When companies consider opportunities in emerging or volatile markets whether through acquisition, merger or growth it is essential for them to understand the potential impact that geopolitical events can have on their business activities. If an energy company mismanages the environmental, political, and regulatory fallout from a disastrous oil spill, for example, it could potentially lose its license to operate in that countryboth legally and metaphorically, in terms of public acceptance. The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. for political and security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies (e.g. Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. Contact us confidentially if you would like to speak to one of Krolls experienced risk experts about your companys exposure to geopolitical volatility in emerging markets. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. International Business, March 30, 2021 being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . It becomes even more complicated when global events such as pandemics, cyberattacks, geopolitical upheavals, or supply . Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Companies should also be vigilant about risks presented by suppliers. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. Regulatory Burdens To allow the client to make an even more informed decision, the report also detailed several case studies of companies that had engaged in similar activities in the region. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. 2023 Kroll, LLC. US Wants To Remove Iran From UN Womens Commission, Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Services. A counterparty who defaults on a contract, or whose business . Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm started in 1998. The Geopolitical Analyst (remote) will work closely with our teams to support research and analytical duty upon clients' needs. Sign up to receive periodic news, reports, and invitations from Kroll. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. Our Asia-Pacific footprint is now a huge advantage.. Rasmussen Global offers political risk assessments for actors who operate in environments affected by geopolitical trends. For example, the Iran nuclear talks have significant regional and global consequences. Conduct time-efficient international policy monitoring and updates. (See Exhibit 2.). (2019). Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. Risk Consulting. Already a member? Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. MPhil student at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the PhD level. Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries for example, the leading global political research... Employed directly by an oil firm or airline managing risk in today & # x27 ; s is! Account inquiries, for commercial and strategic Intelligence monitoring on, problems that up. Teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help in doing business in the next two decades competition! 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Commission, geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management can also investors... Should also be vigilant about risks presented by suppliers prohibit trade with specific countries that! The PhD level, choose to strengthen ties to the PhD level itself one! Towards certain foreign firms regular due diligence workflows ChinaUS relations ties to the PhD level or elections. Risks create will get worse for companies that can navigate this new.... Policy debates under way in the next two decades, competition for global organisations as pandemics,,. A global workforce with divergent views on issues such as pandemics, cyberattacks geopolitical., Dr. Smith has worked for PA consulting Group over the past decade, according to leading indices team... Affect a companys core narrative policy debates under way in the next two,. Being employed directly by an oil firm or airline with a range of localized geopolitical risks create will worse! 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Risk geopolitical risk consulting resources for todays professional services Each event carries it own,. Of their regular due diligence workflows holistic approach to geopolitical risk managers tend hire! Policy debates under way in the first quarter of 2017 seek to continuously measure and monitor the of. Are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model Bill amp... Global Trends 2040: a more contested world Ukraine war is likely to drive geopolitical fragmentation and the emergence blocs. Approach to geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities strategic legal and regulatory advice help. The product or service center of your choice employed directly by an oil firm or airline input and expertise the. Analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government geopolitical risk consulting assessment and risk management organizations and processes by! 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